What are the relative certainties and uncertainties likely to impact the future of migration in the European Union? What could be possible future developments of migration and integration dynamics in the EU when looking towards 2030? And how can we discuss migration challenges and opportunities in a more forward-looking manner that takes into account perspectives of different migration actors and trends that will impact our societies?

The final report of the EU Policy Lab foresight project presents narrative migration scenarios that outline four alternative futures. Whereas the 2030 migration scenarios are fairly general, the report also offers examples of how they can be used to zoom-in on specific thematic areas such as foreign and security policy, labour market and welfare policies and immigrant integration policies. These policy areas have major impact on migration outcomes. A group of distinguished experts contributed to the report with their insights that challenge taken-for-granted assumptions about migration and the role of migration policies. They elaborated narratives on how the four scenarios could play out in different parts of the world including the European Union, its neighbourhood, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.

We use the migration scenarios as a starting point for discussions about future policy needs and challenges in the EU. For that purpose, we developed a set of interactive discussion tools that stimulate forward-looking and strategic discussions about migration and integration. The tools, including a board game, can be used to involve various actors that shape migration policymaking and research or are affected by them in forward-looking debates about these otherwise highly politicised matters. The discussion tools are included in the Migration discussion toolkit that constitutes the second part of the report. They are presented in a practical recipe-style format and are accompanied by templates and other visual aids that help facilitate discussions and harvest their outcomes.

 

The report was launched during the Ideas Lab, a flagship annual event organized by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) on 21 February 2019.

 

Supporting documents for the report:

Migration Discussion Toolkit Elements

Scenario Exploration System: The future of migration in the EU and beyond

 

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